Follow the bouncing small business optimism index

After being down in March and back up in April, NFIB's Small-Business Optimism Index slipped again in May, down 1.6 points. This suggests the March decline may not have been a fluke, but the beginning of an oscillation in the outlook that is signaling a peak for economic growth. "It's hard to beat the first-quarter performance, so a 'slowdown' is definitely going to happen," said NFIB Chief Economist William Dunkelberg. "The only question is how far and how fast." Triggering the slide were a reduction in job openings, capital spending plans and an increase in the percent of small-business owners who believe business conditions will be worse in six months than they are now. Current economic activity was strong in May, Dunkelberg said, adding that reports of higher sales volumes rose and the share of owners expecting higher volumes was unchanged. Additionally, few signs of problems arranging financing have been found and inflation news, while not improving, was somewhat muted. Stay tuned.