Small-business optimism tumbles

Optimism among small-business owners took an unexpected tumble in March. The NFIB Small-Business Optimism Index lost 3.5 points, falling to 98.0 (1986=100), two points below the 30-year average. While profit trends improved, inventory investment and reported sales trends remained strong (virtually unchanged from February), labor market indicators sagged and capital spending plans faded along with weaker expectations for gains in real sales. Declines in job creation plans and job openings accounted for 30 percent of the drop in the index, weaker real sales expectations 40 percent, and the decline in the outlook for overall business conditions contributed 20 percent of the drop. “Although the first quarter will be very strong, something spooked small-business owners in March about the future course of the economy,” said NFIB Chief Economist and MyBusiness columnist William Dunkelberg. “The decline could indicate that owners think the economy is strong, but they don't expect it to get any better, or the economy is weak and they expect growth will slow substantially. The April survey could provide the answer.”